Schools with falling pupil numbers may run ‘mixed-age classes’ due to pressures

In extreme cases, some schools with many unfilled places may have to close in the future due to budgetary pressures, according to an analysis.

The percentage of primary school places that are unfilled is projected to rise from 12% to 16% over the next five years, the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) report said.

In Inner London, unfilled places are projected to rise from 20% to 30% over the same period.

The report said: “The combined picture suggests that continuing falling pupil numbers will cause more primary schools to face significant financial strife in future unless they find ways to cut costs substantially or funding is significantly increased.”

It added: “One possibility is that schools may look to create mixed-age classes in an effort to save the cost of teachers and teaching assistants.”

The Government could offer “parachute payments” to give schools some “breathing room” whilst pupil numbers are falling quickly, it suggested.

A population bulge in England has been moving from primary schools into secondary schools.

London councils warned last year that schools could be forced to merge or close as a result of falling pupil numbers and funding pressures.

The number of applications for places at primary schools in the capital fell last year due to the falling birth rate, as well as families leaving the city after the pandemic and Brexit, councils said.

The latest NFER report has highlighted a number of new Government policies which may help to alleviate some pressures.

For example, it said plans to levy VAT on private school fees may lead to a “small increase” in the number of pupils joining state schools.

But the analysis concluded that “it is not anticipated this will affect the overall, national trend of falling numbers” in state primary schools.

The Government also recently announced the first tranche of funding for 300 schools to convert existing space into new nurseries – which could help schools maintain their income levels.

But the NFER report said that not all primary school space is suitable for nursery-age children and “conversions will incur new costs too”.

It added: “As such, offering nursery classes is only likely to help schools struggling with falling numbers of primary children if the net effect on school finances is positive.

“Given that half of all pre-school childcare providers reported that their current income did not fully cover their costs in 2023, it is doubtful many schools will achieve this.”

One of the possible solutions for managing falling rolls suggested by the NFER is for the Government to increase per-pupil funding faster than inflation.

The report concluded: “Falling pupil numbers should not be used as an opportunity to cut the total school budget. Instead, increasing per-pupil funding rates whilst numbers fall would give schools the means to improve their provision, including by cutting class sizes.

“Beyond funding, it is likely that a mixture of different options will be needed, particularly given the challenge will look very different in different areas. As such, consideration should be given to all the available levers so that schools can plan ahead to ensure continuity for the children they teach.”

Tiffnie Harris, primary specialist at the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said: “The decline in pupil numbers represents a huge financial risk that schools must not be left to shoulder on their own.

“Schools have a limited ability to reduce costs, as many of these are fixed and they still must have the staff necessary to keep the school running.

“Primary schools are already introducing mixed-age classes in response to falling rolls and it is inevitable that some smaller schools will be forced to close if they are not given any form of financial support.”

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leaders’ union NAHT, said: “Falling pupil rolls do not necessarily have to lead to school closures – and this NFER report contains some intelligent ideas about how to keep schools going when there is a dip in pupil numbers.

“School closures can have a devastating impact, not only for the individuals attending and working directly at the schools, but for their entire community, including decisions about where people live and work and even local property prices.”

A Department for Education (DfE) spokesman said: “We recognise the challenges that schools are facing, which is why the Education Secretary has committed to resetting the relationship with the sector and working alongside them to break down barriers to opportunity for all our children.

“We have increased school funding to almost £61.8 billion this year, including almost £1.1 billion through the new Core Schools Budget Grant to support schools with overall costs.

“As part of our wider work for a more integrated education system, we have also committed to rolling out 3,000 school-based nurseries by repurposing empty primary school classrooms, increasing access to early education by building capacity in the system.”