A new YouGov model predicts that Labour is likely to win the Scarborough and Whitby constituency from the Conservatives at the election.

Scarborough and Whitby, which has been represented by the Conservatives since 2005, is likely to become a Labour gain at the general election on July 4, according to YouGov.

The latest modelling from the polling and data company estimates what the results would be if the election took place today.

It states that Labour’s Alison Hume could get 45 per cent, the Conservative’s Roberto Weeden-Sanz 33 per cent, and Reform UK’s David Bowes could come third with 13 per cent.

Both the Liberal Democrats’ Robert Graham Lockwood and the Green Party’s Annette Hudspeth would get four per cent.

If accurate, it would represent a considerable swing from the 2019 general election when Sir Robert Goodwill was reelected with 55 per cent of the vote and a 10,000 vote majority.

However, YouGov has emphasised that its model, which uses polling data and responses about voting intentions from voters in every constituency is “not a prediction” and things will change by July 4 “one way or the other”.

Nationally, the MRP data makes a projection of Labour winning 422 seats which would give Keir Starmer a bigger majority than Tony Blair achieved in 1997.

Meanwhile, in Thirsk and Malton which includes Filey, YouGov estimates that the result will be a tossup between Kevin Hollinrake, a minister in the business department and Labour’s Lisa Banes.

Its model puts the Conservatives ahead on 39 per cent and Labour on 35 per cent.

The Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model uses survey data from almost 60,000 respondents, and “is designed to tell us what would happen if the general election were happening right now, with people’s vote intention, or lack of, as it currently stands,” YouGov said.

It added that “it is not a forecast, but is designed to give a detailed, seat-by-seat look at the British political landscape as we head toward 4 July”.